Every enthusiast needs a skeptic around to keep them balanced. The power of positive thinking is immense—but so is its capacity for error, unless you take the time to answer the skeptics before committing yourself.
That said… I'll get to my point. The 'Cell Phones Are The Future' statement is very heavily clichéd at this point. It is said that the mobile phone is the one pervasive device that has penetrated some of the poorest economies due to the overwhelming demand for any form of telecommunications. Sure, but If you're an entrepreneur thinking of leveraging this mobile platform, consider the following:
- The mobile phone companies have invested billions in notoriously difficult economies in Africa and are currently raking in sweet profits. Trust me, they're not about to share the loot with just anyone after pouring blood and sweat into the current infrastructure. The barriers to entry are extremely high at this point… and I'm almost tempted to say that the current companies have ganged up in a cartel-like structure to protect themselves.
- Africa is the wild west. Interoperability issues are sure to be a big problem especially where m-commerce is concerned. Interoperability aside, I can't even begin to fathom the imminent fraud quandary.
- Seriously - all cell phones are good for at this point is calling and sending text messages. Outside the cell phone companies, the only other people cashing in are selling ringtones and graphics. Beyond that we have very few early adopters willing to try anything else.
Many of the new startups are spending ridiculous amounts of money on impractical schemes. Is anyone even studying the habits of the end user to determine if all this is necessary? Someone will make plenty of $$$$ down the road, but until then there will be plenty of burnouts on the side of the road.
I'm sorry for the pessimistic view, but that's just my 2 cents.